01
The headline is not the contract
A market title is usually a summary. Resolution rules define what counts, which source controls settlement, and the deadline that applies.
Two contracts about the same real-world event can settle differently if their wording or sources differ.
02
Three things to verify
Before evaluating a prediction-market price, verify the exact wording, the designated settlement source, and the close or resolution deadline.
- What exact event causes YES or NO?
- Which source has final authority?
- What happens if the event is delayed, revised, or disputed?
03
Price is market belief, not truth
A 70-cent contract can be read as roughly 70% market-implied probability before fees and structural differences. It is still a market price, not a fact about the future.
Research education only. This article is informational and does not provide gambling, financial, investment, or legal advice. Market prices and event information can change quickly.