Stale inputs create false precision
A detailed model can still be wrong if it is using an outdated starter, projected lineup, injury status, weather report, or role expectation. More decimals do not fix stale context.
Freshness gates are useful because they force the model to admit when critical inputs are missing.
Different sports go stale differently
MLB can change materially when confirmed lineups, pitchers, bullpen availability, or weather update. NBA and NFL can move sharply on player status, minutes, snaps, and role changes. Prediction markets can reprice immediately after new primary-source evidence.
Build a refresh habit
Refresh research after major news, after a meaningful line move, and again close to the event when practical. The goal is not constant checking; it is avoiding decisions based on information that is no longer true.
Research education only. This article is informational and does not provide gambling, financial, investment, or legal advice. Market prices and event information can change quickly.